Is diesel going up by PHP 12+ next week?

Petrol price hike could be between 6 to 8 pesos

Facebook page PH Fuel Watch has been pretty on point with their fuel predictions ever since their page started in 2017. Their information is based on MOPS or Mean of Platts Singapore. This is a price forecast -15 to 30 days ahead- of oil products based in Singapore (the Little Red Dot exports refined petroleum to countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, and China).

The latest post by PH Fuel Watch, which has been shared almost 3,000 times in just one hour, has us sweating profusely. Take a look at the screenshot below:

Naturally, we looked it up. While most news items from around the world indicated the continuous rise in fuel prices for the coming months, several media outlets were more specific and validated the forecast by PH Fuel Watch.

Taking data from South Africa’s Central Energy Fund, local media sites from the rainbow nation estimate petrol to breach 21 ZAR and diesel to go above 19 ZAR. After conversion, that puts the price of petrol close to Php 73 while diesel will hover around the Php 66 mark.

The Philadelphia Inquirer on the other hand sees the price of gasoline to hit as high as $5.50 per gallon. Convert that and you get roughly Php 75.92 per liter locally.

Fuel prices were already on the rise since late last year. It worsened due to the high demand for oil to heat homes in the northern hemisphere and the geopolitical crisis happening in eastern Europe. Russian oil accounts for only 10% of the world supply. If political sanctions completely cut it off from the market, it would make a tremendous impact on world prices.

Oil opened in March 2022 at $107.2 per barrel. Don’t blink. It is set to close the month at $160.59 per barrel and continue going up per month until it hits $204.28 per barrel in July 2022. I don’t want to go any further because that will just depress everyone.

Don’t worry about supply though. As per the Department of Energy (DOE), we have enough in our inventory. The problem, according to Energy Undersecretary Gerardo Erguiza is the rising prices. I think we can all agree on that.